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Two days remaining.

England's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test hosts an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|